Forest Loss Threatens Romanian Hills

Deforestation Linked to Increased Landslide Risk

A new study predicts that future deforestation could significantly raise the danger of landslides in Romania. Researchers investigated changes in forest cover to understand how different forestry plans might impact future landslide risk, particularly in areas already prone to such events.

Study Focus and Methodology

Scientists focused on Romania's Buzau Subcarpathians, a region known for landslides, covering an area of 2421 square kilometers with an average slope of 11.5 degrees. To assess the impact of forest changes, the team:

Utilized historical forest maps from 1989, 2000, and 2010.
Developed a computer model, Dinamica EGO, to project future scenarios up to 2040.
Created two distinct forest management scenarios:
1. "Business as Usual" (BAU): Assumes current trends in forestry continue.
2. "Alternative": Includes specific measures to reduce landslide risk.

Key Findings and Projections

The study revealed several critical insights into future forest cover and landslide risk:

By 2040, most projected tree cutting is expected in areas historically less prone to landslides.
Despite mitigation efforts, the "Alternative" scenario still projected 483 hectares of deforestation in high-risk landslide zones.
The "Business as Usual" scenario, however, projected 276 hectares of deforestation in these susceptible areas.
Interestingly, new forests are largely expected to grow on land already prone to landslides, which could potentially stabilize the ground and prevent future slides.

"The study's results suggest that deforestation could lead to a local-scale increase in landslide risk, particularly near forestry roads," the authors noted. They emphasized that more trees could "improve slope stability and reduce landslide risk." A strategic forest management plan is crucial to mitigate the adverse effects of tree cutting.

Challenges and Future Research

The study acknowledged certain limitations, including:

The challenge of precisely predicting where future changes would occur.
Reliance on existing landslide risk maps.
Inability to account for illegal logging, a known issue in the region.

Future research will aim to address these uncertainties and provide even more precise forecasts.

Understanding how forests are managed today is crucial for preventing future disasters.

Reference:

Malek, Ž., Boerboom, L., & Glade, T. (2015). Future Forest Cover Change Scenarios with Implications for Landslide Risk: An Example from Buzau Subcarpathians, Romania. Environmental Management, 56(5), 1228-1243. doi: 10.1007/s00267-015-0577-y